Take the Dolphins to give up five points on the handicap. The lowdown Venue Soldier FieldSurface GrassWeather Sunny, 16CVegas handicap Miami -5Vegas points line 45. 5 Key stat The Bears have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last ten games as a home underdog. CLICK HERE FOR YOUR CHANCE TO WIN A 65" TV Not got a bet365 account? Bet £10 & get £50 in free bets Open account offer. Minimum deposit requirement.
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Getting Pinned Down At The 1-Yard Line Isn’t As Bad As You ThinkPutting rookie quarterbacks in challenging situations is part of what the NFL preseason is all about. There are no real consequences for failure, and the level of competition is high enough such that the experience is both revealing and an opportunity for growth. Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields learned that in his first preseason game last Saturday against the Miami Dolphins, when his team was pinned at its own 2 on the final drive of the third quarter.
1 The rate of blitzes per pass play2 since 2015 are almost identical in both parts of the field: 28 percent in the open field and 27 percent inside the 5. It’s also true that expected points added (EPA) per play has been strongly negative when an offense is pinned inside its own 5 every year since 2015. So defenses are generally getting the better of these matchups in terms of how they contribute to net points. 3 Plays inside the 5 have favored the defense Expected points added per play inside the offense’s 5-yard line, 2015-20 season plays epa/play 2015 329 -0. 042 2016 331 -0. 060 2017 340 -0.
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While the offense produced a quick three-and-out (in what was otherwise mostly a good debut for the rookie), it gave Fields a taste of what it’s like to run plays out of the shadow of his own goal against a pro defense. By the standards of rookie QB play in the preseason, maybe a three-and-out isn’t unexpected at all in such a situation. But it’s hard to know how we should weigh success or failure when a team is pinned near their own goal. While it feels like success should be rare when you’re stuck on your 2-yard line, is advancing the ball really that out of the ordinary? And what does success in these situations look like exactly? First, let’s define success. Although it would be wonderful if a team could always march 98 yards down the field for a touchdown, the received wisdom from NFL coaches and analysts indicates that playing deep in your own territory is a significant challenge.
Instead, a reasonable measure of success might simply be getting a single first down, giving your punter room to kick instead of punting with his heel an inch away from a safety. An extra 10 yards can also give your defense slightly better field position after the punt. So that’s the metric we’ll use: the rate at which offenses convert to a new set of downs when they’re backed up near their own goal. To get a sense of what our baseline expectations should be, we took all plays since 2001 in the NFL regular season and looked at how often drives that started deep in a team’s own territory converted at least one new set of downs. The results were surprising: When starting out inside their own 10, NFL teams are able to move the chains at least once the majority of the time. This is true even when they start on their own 1-yard line.
Head coach Mike McDaniel spent time working with Wilson when they were at the San Francisco 49ers and he joins Raheem Mostert, another ex-Niner, out of the backfield. Miami have been red-hot with the ball in any case this season. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struck up a tremendous rapport with wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so bolstering their backfield can only help the Dolphins in their quest to reach the post-season. As for the Bears, they traded away key defensive players Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith - and the absence of those two could be felt keenly against the Fins.
Chicago have been getting better offensively in recent weeks, but they still leave a lot to be desired with the ball. Signal-caller Justin Fields continues to have problems and his team ranks last in the NFL in passing offence. Miami’s defence isn’t the best but it should be able to shut down Fields and pacify running back David Montgomery. The Dolphins are undefeated this season when Tagovailoa has played the entire game and the QB should once again be able to lead his team to victory. Miami consistently keep the scoreboard ticking over and it's hard to see how the Bears keeping up with them.
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Countdown to Kickoff: NFL Sunday Slate Picks - Battle Red Blog Pittsburgh Steelers v Miami Dolphins Chase Claypool of the Pittsburgh Steelers warms up prior to a game against the Miami Dolphins at
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That’s tough to take, and seems like it would be soul-crushing for the punter and special teams unit. You’ve done the best job you can possibly do, and it still isn’t enough to tilt the odds of a three-and-out in your favor. Which leads to the obvious question: Why is this happening? Why does the conventional wisdom overstate the offense’s disadvantage deep in its own territory? What makes Patrick Mahomes so great? | FiveThirtyEight One possible explanation might be that defenses get aggressive when teams are backed up. And perhaps they get too aggressive. If defenses blitz the quarterback hoping to force a turnover or safety, it could open up holes for an offense to exploit, leading to more first downs. The evidence for this theory, however, is not completely clear. It turns out that teams don’t blitz any more often when their opponents are backed up than they do in the open field.
It’s certainly harder to get a first down when you begin a drive so close to your own goal -- teams convert at 54 percent when starting from the 1, 8 percentage points below the conversion rate when starting at the 10 -- but it’s still shocking just how often defenses allow opposing offenses to squirm out from the clutches of horrible field position. When you pin the other team at their 1, you might be forgiven for expecting your defense to respond with a three-and-out. Instead, more often than not, the offense marches forward for a first down.
Daily Norseman, a Minnesota Vikings community Miami Dolphins elevate tackle Kion Smith for Sunday's game against Chicago Bears; Verone… The Phinsider (Weblog) 11:32 Sat, 05